Affordability Strategy Tool and Calculator
Data anchor
Official EIA 2025 state retail prices
Cost model
EIA AEO generation, transmission, and distribution splits
2035 lens
Power-sector clean share and CO2 path by state
Lower electricity bills by scaling cheap clean power through infrastructure already on the grid.
Cost of solar, wind, and battery storage has fallen fast. In many cases, adding more of those resources is now the cheapest way to meet new electricity demand and reduce emissions.
The remaining challenge is not whether clean power is affordable. It is whether states can deploy it quickly enough while avoiding the highest-cost path for generation, transmission, and distribution. That is why this tool focuses on leveraging existing interconnection, existing rights-of-way, VPPs, demand response, and off-peak grid capacity.
Purpose
What this tool is testing
This tool does not assume affordability comes from slower electrification. It tests whether states can meet more load with lower-cost clean generation and better use of existing infrastructure so the average retail cost of electricity falls instead of rising.
Lower fuel exposure
Use solar, storage, and VPPs to replace the most expensive new fossil additions and peak-serving costs.
Use existing wires better
Add clean power at underused interconnection, reconductor existing lines, and use storage to improve utilization.
Grow load off-peak
Use EV charging and flexible demand to raise local utilization before defaulting to feeder and substation rebuilds.
Strategies
Seven affordability strategies
These are the levers carried into the simulator. Each card links to a short explainer page with the cost logic and the named sources behind it.
Policy Playbook
Show the savings, then show exactly what states should do.
The Deploy Action playbook associated with Jigar Shah and Arnab Pal is strong because it does both. It pairs the affordability strategies with concrete state actions, named state examples, and a clear through-line: open markets, standardize permitting and interconnection, and require utilities to prove they are using existing infrastructure well before charging customers for more of it.
| Strategy unlock | Policy action | Market-opening / deregulation move | State examples |
|---|---|---|---|
| VPPs and demand responseTurn flexible customer assets into peak-serving capacity. | Treat VPPs and demand response as supply-side capacity in IRPs and procurement, default enabled devices into programs where possible, and require device interoperability. | Let third-party aggregators compete directly in utility and ISO/RTO programs instead of keeping VPPs trapped inside utility pilot structures. | California DSGS, Colorado SB24-218, Hawaii BYOD+, Virginia VPP pilot authority. |
| Solar + storage and lower solar soft costsMake the cheapest clean supply easier to buy and faster to install. | Use competitive all-source procurement for solar plus storage, instant permitting for standard rooftop solar and batteries, and automated interconnection for pre-certified equipment. | Open third-party ownership, community solar, and direct customer participation so households and industry can access low-cost clean power without waiting for monopoly utility buildout. | SolarAPP+ adoption in California and Texas jurisdictions, California third-party battery procurement through DSGS, Colorado competitive DER procurement under SB24-218. |
| Grid utilization before new wiresMake utilities prove the existing grid is being used well. | Require utilities to file utilization metrics, identify constrained circuits and substations, and evaluate non-wires alternatives before new T&D capex is approved. | Keep the review technology-neutral so storage, VPPs, customer-owned capacity, and non-utility solutions can compete with rate-based infrastructure. | Virginia HB 434 / SB 621, Illinois SB 25, California DIDF. |
| Large-load flexibility and BYOCAdd data centers and industry without shifting all costs to households. | Create flexible or interruptible service classes, curtailment-ready interconnection, and bring-your-own-capacity rules for large loads. | Let sophisticated customers procure clean PPAs, storage, and VPP capacity directly so they cover their incremental needs rather than socializing those costs onto everyone else. | ERCOT Connect and Manage, Texas SB 6, Arizona Salt River Project flexibility pilots. |
| Modern rate design and customer protectionPush load off-peak and prevent bad cost shifting. | Default to time-of-use pricing where appropriate, use stronger on/off-peak differentials, and adopt large-load tariffs or minimum contract terms that protect smaller customers. | Expose the real value of low-cost clean power and make new peak demand pay for the risks it creates instead of burying those costs in a bundled bill. | AEP Ohio data center tariff, Georgia large-customer contracts, Nevada Clean Transition Tariff, Virginia large-load protections. |
| GETs and reconductoringUse existing corridors before greenfield transmission. | Require planners and utilities to screen reconductoring, advanced conductors, flow controls, and dynamic line rating before defaulting to a new transmission line. | Shorten approval and cost-recovery pathways for upgrades in existing rights-of-way so lower-cost competitors can move power sooner. | CAISO-approved GET projects, ERCOT reconductoring evaluation, MISO reliability reconductoring. |
| Permitting and interconnection reformRemove soft-cost and queue friction. | Use shot clocks, centralized siting, pre-cleared energy opportunity zones, automated permitting, and automated permission to operate for standard DER systems. | Replace fragmented local gatekeeping with transparent, rules-based approvals so lower-cost clean resources actually reach the market in time for consumers to benefit. | SolarAPP+ jurisdictions in California, Texas, and Virginia; statewide permitting reform recommendations across the playbook. |
Method
How the numbers are anchored
The New York Times electricity dashboard points back to EIA, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Brattle for the cost trend story. This site uses those public sources plus the attached reports, then makes the scenario assumptions explicit.
2025 average retail prices are official state data.
The simulator starts from EIA state sales, revenue, and price data rather than a stylized regional average.
Generation, transmission, and distribution are scaled from EIA AEO 2026.
For each state, the 2035 rate path is built from the corresponding AEO Table 54 regional cost split and then scaled to the real 2025 state rate.
State CO2 starts from EIA annual power-sector emissions.
The 2035 status quo is then scaled using AEO fossil-generation trends, so the clean-share chart is linked to state-level emissions data.
Relative-cost assumptions are visible instead of hidden.
Examples include 40% cheaper clean additions than new fossil, one-third-cost reconductoring, and peak-cost reductions from VPPs and demand response.
Next Step
Open the state simulator
Compare California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois with a real state map, 2025 to 2035 cost wedges, and a 2035 power-sector clean-share chart.