Methods and Data

How the calculator turns grid strategies into 2035 rate savings, annual savings, and emissions outcomes.

The tool is intentionally transparent. It starts from official 2025 U.S. rates and state tariff proxies for India, builds a stressed 2035 status-quo pathway, applies strategy-specific cost reductions to the exposed parts of generation, transmission, and distribution, then converts those rate cuts into annual savings and a cleaner 2035 power-sector mix. The review page separates direct observations from modeled assumptions and documents the audit checks.

Flow

Calculation flow

Every state follows the same logic. What changes by state is the starting rate, load growth, cost split, clean-share baseline, and how much each strategy can realistically touch each cost component.

1 Start with an official 2025 state anchor

For the U.S., the anchor is official EIA state sales, revenue, and retail price data. For India, it is a 2025 tariff proxy calibrated to the CEA tariff book and paired with the latest available official CEA state sales volumes from 2022-23.

→

2 Build a 2035 status-quo path

The model splits rates into generation, transmission, and distribution, then applies higher-load and higher-wires pressure to show what a more expensive status quo can look like by 2035.

→

3 Apply strategy-specific cost reductions

Each strategy touches only the cost buckets it can plausibly reduce. For example, reconductoring mostly affects transmission, while off-peak EV charging mostly affects distribution.

→

4 Convert to 2035 outcomes

Strategy savings lower the 2035 rate path. Annual savings equal 2035 rate reduction multiplied by 2035 state sales. Clean-share gains then scale power-sector CO2 down from the 2035 status quo.

Formula

Core calculation logic

The sliders do not directly set savings. They set the share of practical 2035 potential that is captured for each strategy.

Rate savings

Component cost × strategy cost-down factor × deployment level

A strategy only lowers the parts of the bill it can realistically influence. This avoids treating every strategy as if it could cut the whole retail rate.

Component caps

Overlapping levers are capped to avoid double counting.

If several strategies all target the same transmission or distribution bucket, the combined savings are limited so the model does not claim more savings than that bucket can plausibly deliver.

Annual savings

2035 rate reduction × 2035 state electricity sales

This is why the same rate cut can produce much larger annual savings in California or Texas than in a smaller state.

Emissions

Higher clean share lowers the modeled fossil share and CO2.

The emissions view is a compact cross-check, not a full dispatch model. It asks whether the affordability pathway also moves the power sector toward an 80%+ clean share by 2035.

Data

Primary data sources used in the tool

These are the main public data anchors and supporting papers behind the calculator. The strategy pages provide more detail on the rationale for each lever, and the review page shows the exact audit checks and corrections made during source validation.

Region	Source	Used for
United StatesRetail price anchor	EIA state sales, revenue, and price data	Official 2025 starting rates and 2025 state electricity sales.
United States2035 cost split	EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026 Table 54	Generation, transmission, and distribution cost structure used to build the 2035 status-quo path.
United StatesEmissions anchor	EIA annual state power-sector emissions	Base state CO2 levels for the clean-share and emissions check.
United StatesRate-pressure context	LBNL retail price trends update Grid Strategies load growth report	Context for stronger BAU T&D pressure and higher-load-growth assumptions.
IndiaTariff anchor	CEA Tariff and Duty Book 2025	State 2025 Rs/kWh tariff proxies rather than observed statewide average retail-price series.
IndiaDemand and system context	CEA General Review 2024 CEA Installed Capacity Report	Latest official state sales volumes from General Review 2024 Table 1.7 for 2022-23, plus installed-capacity and renewable-capacity context used to calibrate India baselines.
IndiaPlanning context	CEA integrated resource planning division	State planning logic and adequacy context for the India 2035 pathway assumptions.
AuditReferences and review	References, review, and why the results look the way they do	Exact U.S. and India anchor checks, AEO region mapping, source corrections, and an intuitive explanation of the result patterns.
Cross-cuttingStrategy evidence	Grid Growth, Utilization, and Affordability: A Playbook for States Surplus interconnection working paper WP343 reconductoring paper Scarcity to Surplus	Relative cost-down logic for reuse, reconductoring, VPPs, and utilization-first planning.

Back To Tool

Return to the calculator

Use the landing page to compare 2035 cost wedges and savings first, then test how strongly each strategy is deployed in the state you care about.

Open the landing page Open references and review Download Excel calculator Open strategy explainers